Macro Moves Prediction Challenge: 2018 U.S. Midterms

Macro Affairs is proud to announce the first Macro Moves Prediction Challenge!

In the Macro Moves Prediction Challenge, you are asked to predict how financial markets will react to a specific, upcoming event. After the challenge, the participants will be ranked and featured in an article with a link to their full submission. Also see the overview of submissions.

This challenge centers around the U.S. midterm elections,  where Democrats could win majority in the House and/or Senate which are currently controlled by Republicans.

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Challenge Specification

Can you predict the performance of the S&P 500 on the day after the midterm election? The performance that day (Wednesday November 7, 2018) is assumed to be dominated by the midterm election outcome.

A prediction could be as simple as “S&P 500 up 1%”. However, you are encouraged to explain your prediction. Why will the S&P 500 move up or down? You are also allowed to make your prediction dependent on the outcome of the vote. For example, if the Republicans continue to control the Senate and the House, then X; otherwise Y.

In addition, you are encouraged to make other predictions about financial markets on November 7, if you want to. For example, what will the U.S. 10Y yield do on the day after the election? What about currencies, the VIX, or emerging markets?

Submission Guidelines

Submissions are accepted through public blog posts and articles and should clearly state the prediction. Please email a link to your article before October 15th, 2018 to (ma @ The submission should also have a ~50 word summary of the prediction, which I can display in an overview of the submissions.

Other predictions or conditions on the election outcome are not required but will be taken into account during the evaluation. For other predictions, a link to the relevant benchmark should be included.

Valid submissions should also mention the challenge and include a link to the Macro Affairs website.


The reward for this challenge shall be eternal fame and glory.

After the challenge ends, I will rank the participants by their performance in this challenge. I will write an article with an overview of the submissions. The overview will include a summary of each submission and a link to the full submission.

I hope you will join the challenge!

For questions or remarks, please leave a comment or reach out to me at (challenge @

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